Monday, March 25, 2019

On the Barr letter about the Mueller report.

I believe, at this time, AG Barr will only succeed in delaying the report.  The longer the delay, the more that is probably in it that worries the 45th President.

Conspiracy is hard to prove,  When targets and witnesses in an investigation are living with a credible threat of assassination, as everyone involved in the matter Robert Mueller was investigating is (from Putin), it's going to be nigh impossible to prove a case of conspiracy to the beyond a reasonable doubt standard in a US court of law.  That's just US justice.  We don't ask people to risk their own lives in order to get to the truth.

That doesn't mean I don't believe it.  I do.  I think there was a direct conspiracy.  I also believe Donald Trump is too ignorant, self-absorbed, and insecure to have been anything but a useful actor, and perhaps unwittingly, but he cooperated with Russian security operatives who conducted a criminal theft of private information from US citizens.

I never really bought the narrative that this was some elaborately subtle back-room political strategy he cooked up.  He's too peripatetic to invest the patience required to conduct even a simple and straightforward international conspiracy.  He's dumb, people.  Really dumb.

Obstruction of Justice is a different thing.  It is also hard to prove, because one has to also prove intent as well.  There's not a manslaughter version of obstruction of justice.  You have to have tried to obstruct, meant to obstruct, and knew the obstruction was illegal.  All of that has to be proved beyond a reasonable doubt.  People have to hear you say those things, usually on tape (like Nixon), for it to rise to level one needs for a true bill from a grand jury, much less a conviction from a finder of fact.

Mueller clearly has evidence of obstruction, I have an easy time believing it is almost impossible (beyond digging up a tape if there is one) to prove the intent to obstruct when your target is intellectually vapid, emotionally volatile and perhaps mildly mentally ill.  No one knows what someone like that actually intends to do, including the person themself.

It would additionally be difficult to prove that someone as thoroughly uneducated and unread as the 45th President knows the criminal code well enough to realize obstruction is a crime, until someone informs him after the fact.  He is not an encyclopedia of any kind of knowledge.  He is utterly bereft of the intellectual discipline required to learn anything in depth.

The remedy for all this is removal from office, that would be done by the Senate, if the House decides to send them to case.  Direct removal from office is not something Mueller can do, and if he brought a case to the grand jury and got a true bill, he might well lose in court, which would be a protection against impeachment.  So, here we are.

Be patient.  Vote.